Nepal, a Himalayan jewel known for its rich cultural heritage and strategic geopolitical location, has long shared deep-rooted historical, cultural, and economic ties with India. However, recent shifts in Nepal’s foreign policy, particularly during the tenure of Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli, have raised concerns about the potential erosion of this time-tested relationship. Oli’s increasing inclination toward China has implications not just for India-Nepal relations but also for Nepal’s long-term stability and sovereignty.
This article delves into the reasons behind Oli’s growing affinity for China, its impact on Nepal’s relations with India, and the potential crises Nepal may face as a result of this geopolitical pivot.
Understanding the India-Nepal Relationship
India and Nepal share an open border, extensive people-to-people contacts, and cultural affinities rooted in Hinduism and Buddhism. The Treaty of Peace and Friendship, signed in 1950, laid the foundation for their special relationship, ensuring unrestricted movement of people, trade, and mutual respect for sovereignty.
Nepal’s landlocked status makes it heavily reliant on India for access to international markets. Over 65% of Nepal’s trade is with India, and the country depends on Indian ports for maritime access. Additionally, India has been a consistent partner in Nepal’s infrastructure development and energy needs, including the development of hydropower projects and cross-border energy exchange.
KP Sharma Oli’s ‘New-Found Love’ for China
Under KP Sharma Oli’s leadership, Nepal’s foreign policy has taken a discernible shift toward Beijing. This realignment can be traced back to several developments:
1. The 2015 Blockade and Resentment Against India
In 2015, Nepal accused India of imposing an unofficial blockade during a period of constitutional unrest. The blockade, which disrupted the supply of essential goods, fueled anti-India sentiments in Nepal. Oli capitalized on this narrative, presenting China as an alternative partner to reduce Nepal’s dependency on India.
2. Signing the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Nepal joined China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2017, marking a significant step toward closer Sino-Nepal ties. Under this initiative, China has promised to invest in infrastructure projects, including highways, railways, and hydropower plants. Oli portrayed these commitments as Nepal’s gateway to economic prosperity and independence from Indian influence.
3. Geopolitical Ambitions
Oli has frequently used nationalist rhetoric to bolster his political image. Aligning with China, a global superpower, allows him to project Nepal as a strategically significant nation that can balance India’s influence with China’s economic and political clout.
4. Strategic Projects and Agreements
China has made substantial inroads into Nepal through investments and agreements:
- The Trans-Himalayan Multidimensional Connectivity Network aims to link Nepal to China’s infrastructure grid.
- Increasing Chinese influence in Nepalese media, academia, and politics.
- The construction of dry ports and roadways connecting Nepal to Tibet.
How Oli’s Pro-China Policies Could Ruin India-Nepal Relations
1. Erosion of Mutual Trust
Nepal’s pivot toward China has created friction in its relations with India. Oli’s public criticism of India, coupled with territorial disputes such as the Kalapani issue, has undermined decades of mutual trust and goodwill. India, which views Nepal as a buffer state against China, perceives Oli’s policies as a strategic threat.
2. Geopolitical Risks of Chinese Influence
China’s growing footprint in Nepal raises concerns about potential military and strategic encroachments. While Oli may see China as a benefactor, India views this as a breach of its security interests. Increased Chinese involvement could lead to heightened tensions along the India-Nepal border, adversely affecting bilateral trade and cultural exchanges.
3. Economic Fallout
Nepal’s economic reliance on India is not easily replaceable. Chinese investments often come with strings attached, including high-interest loans and limited local employment generation. If India responds to Oli’s pro-China stance with reduced economic cooperation, Nepal could face significant trade disruptions and financial instability.
4. Diplomatic Isolation
By alienating India, Oli risks isolating Nepal in the South Asian regional context. India plays a key role in SAARC and other regional platforms, and strained relations with India could limit Nepal’s diplomatic leverage and participation in multilateral initiatives.
Potential Long-Term Crises (Threats) for Nepal
1. Debt Dependency on China
China’s investments in Nepal, while promising on paper, often come with the burden of unsustainable debt. Several countries participating in the BRI have faced financial crises due to opaque agreements and high debt-to-GDP ratios. If Nepal fails to service its loans, it risks losing strategic assets, as seen in Sri Lanka’s Hambantota Port case.
2. Threat to Sovereignty
Increased Chinese involvement in Nepal’s governance and infrastructure poses a risk to its sovereignty. Reports of Chinese interference in Nepalese politics and border encroachments suggest that Beijing’s support comes at the cost of Nepal’s autonomy.
3. Social and Cultural Impacts
China’s policies often disregard local cultures and practices, as evidenced by its treatment of Tibetan Buddhism. Nepal, home to significant Tibetan Buddhist communities, could face cultural and social unrest if China imposes its ideological framework.
4. Economic Overdependence on a Single Partner
While diversification of trade and investment partners is essential, overreliance on China could backfire. Nepal’s exports to China remain minimal compared to its imports, creating a trade imbalance. If Chinese investments do not yield the promised economic benefits, Nepal could face long-term economic stagnation.
5. Alienation from India and the West
Nepal’s pro-China tilt could lead to strained relations not only with India but also with Western nations wary of China’s global ambitions. Reduced support from these countries could impact Nepal’s development aid, tourism, and international standing.
A Balanced Approach: The Way Forward for Nepal
To avoid falling into a geopolitical and economic quagmire, Nepal must adopt a balanced and pragmatic foreign policy:
1. Strengthening Ties with India
Nepal must recognize the historical, cultural, and economic ties that bind it to India. Resolving border disputes through dialogue and enhancing bilateral trade and infrastructure cooperation can rebuild trust and goodwill.
2. Cautious Engagement with China
While Chinese investments are valuable, Nepal should ensure transparency and fairness in agreements to avoid falling into a debt trap. Diversifying its trade and investment partnerships can reduce overdependence on any single nation.
3. Enhancing Regional Cooperation
Nepal can leverage platforms like SAARC and BIMSTEC to strengthen its regional ties. A neutral and balanced approach toward both India and China will enhance its diplomatic credibility and strategic significance.
4. Prioritizing National Interests
Nepal’s leadership must prioritize long-term national interests over short-term political gains. Policies should focus on sustainable development, preserving sovereignty, and fostering harmony with all neighbours.
Conclusion
KP Sharma Oli’s pro-China tilt, while seemingly advantageous in the short term, poses significant risks to Nepal’s economic stability, sovereignty, and relations with India. A robust and balanced foreign policy that leverages Nepal’s strategic location without alienating key partners is crucial for the nation’s long-term prosperity.
India, on its part, must adopt a patient and cooperative approach, addressing Nepal’s grievances while emphasizing mutual respect and shared growth. As the geopolitical chessboard in South Asia evolves, the stakes for both India and Nepal are higher than ever. Only through mutual understanding and pragmatic diplomacy can the two neighbours preserve their historical bond and navigate the challenges of the 21st century.